XRP Set to Break $4.20? ETF Story Could Change the Game
While the altcoin market is going through a correction, Ripple (XRP) is showing signs of growth of its own. Despite legal issues and delays from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), many analysts believe that the coin can still ride the ETF wave to reach the $4.20 mark.
Ethereum ETF Paves the Way for Ripple?
The early success of Ethereum ETFs has brought confidence to the entire altcoin market. Although capital flows have weakened recently, the overall trend shows that institutional investors are willing to look for alternatives beyond Bitcoin and Ether. XRP, with its fast settlement network and stable trading volume of $6–7 billion/day, is emerging as a strong candidate.
SEC Delays, But Expectations Are Still High
The SEC’s decision on the Ripple ETF to be pushed back to October 19, 2025 is not necessarily a bad sign. In fact, it reflects the regulator’s cautious approach, similar to its previous Bitcoin ETF approval process. According to Polymarket data, 77% of respondents believe that the XRP ETF will be approved this year, while Bloomberg experts give it a 95% probability.
Market sentiment: whales and retail investors are different?
While large funds like BlackRock have not been interested in ETFs other than BTC and ETH, on-chain flows show that XRP whales are still actively buying stocks. This creates the foundation for a recovery as retail investors gradually return to the market. If XRP breaks through the psychological resistance of $3.20, the target of $4.20 is completely within reach.
Potential risks
However, it is worth noting that XRP is still under pressure from:
Direct competition with Ethereum during the altseason.
Uncertainty from the SEC, which could prolong the ETF approval process.
Absence of support from major financial institutions like BlackRock.
Why XRP could surprise?
XRP has long been positioned as a coin associated with the cross-border payments industry. If an ETF gets the green light, Ripple could become the first altcoin other than ETH to be listed as a regulated trading product, opening up a whole new stream of institutional capital.